Research
Research
Reports and analyses on the risks behind infrastructure value.
Articles
25 articles
UK regulation in motion: December-January updates reshaping utility finance, and what to price next
UK utility regulation has shifted sharply from policy headlines to a governance-and-finance reset. Across water, energy, telecoms and transport, regulators are tightening incentives, hardening enforcement, and demanding credible delivery as a condition of “financeability.” Ofwat’s blind-year reconciliation makes performance real cash, while RIIO3 pairs major investment with tougher bill politics and consumer protection. Payments and billing are emerging as the next regulatory frontier.
Cassandra Etter-Wenzel
7 min read
The Broken Link between AI Growth and Electricity Demand
The world will use far more AI. That does not mean it will use proportionally more electricity. As AI systems become more efficient, the relationship between adoption and power demand weakens. This creates a forecasting problem with real consequences for grid planning, investment timing, and policy—where flexibility matters more than precision.
Jorge Cárdenas
8 min read
The Factories of the AI Age: How Data Centres Are Reshaping Electricity, Risk, and Regulation
AI is turning data-centres into the factories of the digital age — reshaping electricity demand, regulation, and capital flows. Their value now hinges on a mix of risks: price volatility, grid constraints, policy uncertainty, renewable access, and supply-chain exposure. Understanding how these forces interact is essential for investors navigating the next era of AI infrastructure.
Jorge Cárdenas
6 min read
The Repricing of Infrastructure: How AI is changing the logic of capital allocation in the physical world
AI is transforming both digital and physical worlds. Large-scale computation and LLMs are launching a new infrastructure era—shaped by where we build, invest, and how we value assets. Vallorii sees two forces: soaring demand for power, land, and grids, and AI’s analytic power redefining risk and value—together, they’re repricing infrastructure toward intelligence.
Jorge Cárdenas
6 min read
When bond yields spike: UK infrastructure faces a 1-in-5 debt crash risk
UK infrastructure faces a one-in-five crash risk if gilt yields surge toward 10%. Vallorii’s modelling shows how debt structure and regulation—not sector—will decide who absorbs the shock when bond markets turn volatile.
Robert Ritz
5 min read
Real markets: What capital market inelasticity means for infrastructure investments
Capital flows, not theory, drive valuations. Our latest analysis gets to the core of Vallorii’s work: making sense of inelastic markets and pricing infrastructure equity for the next decade of transition and resilience.
Lennart Baumgärtner
8 min read
Roundtable 17 September: Highlights
Our September 2025 roundtable brought together a full house of senior investors, regulators, utilities, and policymakers to explore how the macroeconomic environment since the 2022 structural break is reshaping infrastructure investment - and what to do about it. We set out to answer one central question: Can ambitious infrastructure investment still be delivered in today’s macro environment? Macroeconomics underwent a structural shift in 2022, increasing cost of capital just when investment...
Sandy Arbuthnott
2 min read
How the UK’s high interest rate environment could re-price infrastructure
High interest rates and investor backlash risk missing capital goals if government can't lock in stability and new financing mechanisms
Lennart Baumgärtner
5 min read
Choice of major water project regulation impacts required equity returns by 220-320bps
Executive summary: Britain’s water‑supply “megaprojects” are arriving: 30 schemes with ~£50bn of lifetime spend, most to be let via...
Lennart Baumgärtner
4 min read